My bull index (a technical indicator based on sectors indices) shows how many sectors, globally, are rallying. The maximum reading of 1000 indicates that every underlying sector/country/asset class is rallying. The minimum reading 0 indicates that every sector is falling. A higher reading shows that more underlying sectors are simultaneously rising.
Looking at a multi-year Bull Index chart, there is clearly a pattern in the highs. The first stimulus-triggered rally in 2009 was the strongest, and absolutely everything rallied (1000). As the market weakened and strengthened again, each successive rally reached a lower high in the bull index, which indicates that
Fewer sectors (or countries) participated in each successive rally, and
Each rally was weaker than the last
In fact, there hasn't been a new multi-year high since September 2009. This indicator can't tell you exactly when a bull market ends. But I think it's safe to say that this stimulus-driven bull market, which is now 3.5 years old, gets weaker every year.
I'm short the TSX, but otherwise am reducing leverage. I've withdrawn most of my brokerage funds.
- Perpetual Bull, email@example.com