Great Ponzi.com

2009-12-15

Canadian bankruptcies down in October


Latest Canadian bankruptcy statistics – October 2009

Total bankruptcies in October (9,245) are down sharply from the previous month (12,792) and actually lower than one year ago (9,468). The government report for October is available at:

http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br02310.html

The monthly figures are very volatile and a trailing average gives more meaningful results. I have been using a 6 month trailing average that is also population-adjusted (per 100k population).

The adjusted average for October is 31.74 which is down 3% from the September reading of 32.87. This number is 30% higher than one year ago.

Overall, the lower October bankruptcy count is a welcome relief, but the 2009 numbers are still much higher than 2008. Here is a long term picture:



Bad loans at Canadian banks

I continue to watch the bad loans figures at the large Canadian banks. At fiscal year end (October 31), most banks are showing a continued deterioration in credit compared to previous quarters.

Bank, reporting at October 31, 2009

Gross impaired loans / total loans

(higher = worse loan book)

Gross impaired loans / Tier 1 capital

(Like Texas ratio, higher = more likely to fail)

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC)

1.92%

17.2%

Bank of Montreal (BMO)

1.94%

16.1%

Scotiabank (BNS)

1.46%

16.7%

CIBC

1.13%

13.5%

TD Bank

0.90%

10.8%

- Perpetual Bull